ABSTRACT
Relevance. China is the dominant trading partner for many countries of the world. The new plan for the Chinese economic development in 2021–2035, based on the “double circulation” model, has become the sub-ject of vigorous debate. Research objective. The study aims to identify China’s economic growth drivers before and during the COVID-19 pandemic and evaluate the impact of external and internal factors on China’s economic growth, taking into account future strategic changes. Data and methods. To identify the growth factors of GDP, we used a factor model based on GDP components by spending and the data provided by the State Bureau of Statistics of the PRC for 2007–2020. Results. Over the past decade, the contribution of GDP components that shape domestic demand has been steadily reduced. The decline in the share of net exports in GDP growth was replaced by the fluctuations in the external and domestic demand shares in the subsequent periods. The evaluations show that in 2020, 1% of 3.56% of China’s economic growth in GDP (in national currency) was provided by net exports and 2% of 3.56% was provided by an increase in gross capital formation. Conclusions. The increase in the contribution of net exports to GDP growth was caused not only by the growth of exports with a slowdown in the growth of imports but also by the redistribution of the shares of all factors and pri-marily by the sharp reduction in the share of the contribution of household expenditures to consumption. To promote domestic circulation through per-sonal consumption, it is necessary for China to lower the savings rate, solve the problem of income inequality, and increase disposable income per capita. © Kheyfets, B.A., Chernova, V.Yu., 2022.
ABSTRACT
Ensuring food security is a strategic goal of any state, especially in the face of population growth. A review of the academic literature showed the presence of problems in ensuring a high level of food security in China: the rigidity of demand for food, limited land resources, structural contradictions between supply and demand. This study proposes an approach to assessing the level of food security, based on the calculation of an integral index consisting of four units of indicators: the sub-index of provision of crop products, the sub-index of productivity, the sub-index of provision of livestock products, and the sub-index of food import dependence. The results show that, in general, the level of food security in China has increased over the period under review, but there are problems in self-sufficiency in crop and dairy products, as well as in an increase in food import dependence. A forecast of the dynamics of the integral index of the food security level and its sub-indices was constructed, which showed that a decrease in the integral index might occur due to a decrease in self-sufficiency in livestock products and import dependence, while the availability of crop products and yields will increase. The study showed that the measures taken by the Chinese government led to some positive changes, but it is necessary to take a comprehensive approach to this problem, to solve which it is necessary to use the potential of all sectors of the food industry. © 2021, Eesti Pollumajandusulikool. All rights reserved.